Politics
“Muhoozi Would Be The First Informed & to Seize Power If Museveni Died Today” Ssemujju Nganda Tells
Kira Municipality Member of Parliament Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda has warned that President Museveni is gradually passing state power to his son, Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba. According to Ssemujju, Muhoozi is being groomed daily and could be the first to assume control of Uganda if Museveni were to die. “Every day before Museveni wakes up, Muhoozi is briefed and understands that the president is weakening. Even if Museveni dies today, Muhoozi would be the first to take over,” he said.
Ssemujju added that because Muhoozi is still learning leadership, he often employs harsh and ruthless methods against opposition leaders and their supporters to assert authority. He warned that Uganda’s opposition has a single real opportunity—the upcoming elections—to seize power before Muhoozi cements his position as Museveni’s successor.
Veteran political journalist and lobbyist Richard Baguma echoed these concerns, particularly for National Unity Platform (NUP) leader Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine. Baguma stressed that Bobi Wine is currently an underdog and faces a steep climb to challenge entrenched figures like Muhoozi and Museveni’s son-in-law, Odrek Rwabwogo, chair of the Presidential Advisory Committee on Exports and Industrial Development (PACEID).
“I speak in good faith—Museveni cannot be overthrown through these elections,” Baguma said. “Even if he loses power as in Sudan under Omar al-Bashir or Libya under Muammar Gaddafi, it will be taken by those closest to him, not outsiders like Bobi Wine. He is not yet ready for state leadership.”
Baguma also cautioned that Bobi Wine’s youthful supporters cannot deliver state power. He said Museveni will exploit their inexperience, using arrests, intimidation, and imprisonment to weaken Bobi Wine’s movement while demonstrating his own control.
The analyst advised Bobi Wine to seek mentorship from seasoned opposition figures such as Maj Gen Mugisha Muntu and Dr. Kizza Besigye. He noted that both have deep networks within state institutions and understand the mechanics of attempting a power transfer. Baguma added that Museveni still fears Besigye more than Bobi Wine because of Besigye’s experience and political capability.
“Yes, Bobi Wine has strong youth support, especially in urban ghettos,” Baguma said. “But Museveni will always use that against him. These youths cannot run a country, and their leader lacks the experience to challenge government authority effectively.”
The article also highlighted a 2020 incident when Museveni acted decisively after intelligence reported that former spy chief Lt Gen Henry Tumukunde had infiltrated Bobi Wine’s ghetto groups and was allegedly funding protests. Tumukunde and several youths were arrested, many of whom remain in detention.
Ssemujju further revealed that when he recently met Dr. Besigye, the opposition veteran emphasized that elections are the only viable route to power. He warned that if the opposition fails, Muhoozi could dominate Uganda from 2031 onward and would be less tolerant than Museveni. Ssemujju also cautioned Bobi Wine’s supporters that even if their leader becomes president, experienced personnel would be needed to run the government effectively.
Meanwhile, political debates continue over Museveni’s eventual exit. Justice Minister Norbert Mao claims that quiet talks are underway between Museveni’s government and some opposition parties to ensure a peaceful transition. However, prominent journalist Andrew Mwenda dismissed these claims, asserting that Museveni has no intention of stepping down and is prepared to imprison anyone—even family members—who threatens his grip on power.
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